July soybeans lost 2 cents on very light volume of 208,476 contracts. Open interest increased by a massive 10,965 contracts. Interestingly, volume increased by approximately 23,000 contracts from April 30 when soybeans closed 12 cents higher. The range on May 1 was 13 1/2 cents, which was dramatically lower than the 25 cents range on April 30. Although the total open interest increase was was huge in relation to volume, the open interest increase for the July contract was minuscule at 683 contracts on trading volume of 103,476 contracts. In other words, the July contract, which accounted for approximately half the total volume on May 1, only generated an increase in open interest of 683 contracts. The July contract contains a good portion of the speculative (and commercial) open interest interest. The minuscule open interest increases over the past two trading sessions (+744) indicates that market players are losing their appetite for initiating new positions at current levels. The market is overbought. Stand aside.
July corn closed 5 1/4 cents lower on volume of 243,507 contracts. Total open interest declined by 6,459 contracts. Volume declined by approximately 12,000 contracts from the day before when the market closed 8 3/4 cents higher. Open interest for the July contract declined by 3,767 contracts on volume of 121,572 contracts. The total open interest in corn has declined by 131,862 contracts over the past eight trading sessions. It has been evident that the big rally on April 27 could not stop liquidation by longs and shorts. If readers review my posts covering the past 30 days, I reiterated that a massive amount of open interest needed to be liquidated before corn would be a candidate for a long position. The market remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.
June crude oil advanced $1.29 on heavier than normal volume of 568,789 contracts. Open interest increased by a massive 22,824 contracts. Since April 23, open interest has increased by 76,618 contracts. Volume was the highest since April 18 when 632,816 contracts were traded. Despite the rally, crude remains on a short-term sell signal. However, do not short the market. Stand aside.
June gasoline closed 2.75 cents lower on fairly light volume of 148,319 contracts. Open interest declined by 926 contracts. During the past nine days gasoline open interest has declined by 68,374 contracts. I suspect that the Commitment of Traders Report to be released on Friday will show that speculators with long positions have been reduced significantly. In last week’s report (see April 29 Weekend Wrap), managed money liquidated 5,757 contracts and commercials reduced their long positions by 7,097 contracts. Stand aside.
June copper gained 1.40 cents on very light volume of 44,483 contracts. Open interest declined for the six day in a row by 1,156 contracts. This brings the total decline of open interest since April 24 of 11,756 contracts. The sharp drop in volume is indicative of the lack of enthusiasm, and is the lowest since March 21, 2012 when 44,555 contracts were traded. On March 21, copper traded in a range from a low of 3.8380 to a high of 3.8750, which is about the same trading range as on May 1 (3.8055-3.8520). The market remains on an intermediate term buy signal, but copper has not generated a short-term by signal. A short-term buy signal would be required before entering long positions, but the open interest action would have to be positive before final confirmation.
June gold closed $1.80 lower on modest volume of 128,647 contracts. Open interest increased by 3,967 contracts. The market remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal, but this provides the investor with an opportunity to acquire gold at lower prices. Please consult your investment advisor or broker about a program to accumulate gold.
July silver closed 8 cents lower on extremely low volume of 28,000 contracts. Open interest declined by a hefty 1,091 contracts. Volume was the lowest in many months, and represents the kind of volume typical of a trading day before a long holiday weekend. The market continues to act terribly. Stand aside.
The June Euro closed 47 points higher on volume of 236,906 contracts. Open interest declined on the advance by 1,484 contracts. Stand aside.
S&P 500 E mini:
The June S&P 500 E mini closed 7.00 points higher on volume of 1,308,473 contracts. Open interest increased by a minuscule 4,828 contracts. Long put protection should be in place.