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July soybeans lost 1.50 cents on fairly light volume of 190,246 contracts. Open interest declined by 318 contracts and open interest in the July contract declined by 9,024 contracts. There was buying in the back months that offset the large decline in the July contract. The market made a new high for the move at $14.45 1/2, which was the highest price for soybeans since May 17. The market has a firm undertone and although soybeans have yet to generate a short-term buy signal, I expect this to happen in the next day or two. The USDA report released its supply demand numbers and the ending stocks number was bullish. As I write this on June 12, July soybeans are 11.75 cents higher on the day. Once the short term buy signal is generated, readers should consult with their investment advisor or broker about timing and entry points for long positions. Stand aside for now.
July soybean meal lost $1.80 on volume of 61,767 contracts. Open interest declined by 1,773 contracts and open interest in the July contract declined by 3,251 contracts. On June 8, soybean meal generated a short-term buy signal and was already on an intermediate term buy signal. For more information on soybean meal please review the Weekend Wrap of June 10. As I write this on June 12, soybean meal is $5.30 higher on the day. Readers should be consulting with their investment advisor or broker about timing and entry points for long positions.
July corn closed 6.00 cents lower on volume of 314,099 contracts. Total open interest declined by 8,374 contracts and open interest in the July contract declined by 22,832 contracts on volume of 139,081. The July-December bull spread widened by another 6 cents. For the past three trading sessions open interest has declined by 20,481 contracts and corn has declined by 5.75 cents. While the July-December bull spread has been acting in a bullish fashion, open interest action in relation to price has been bearish. As I write this on June 12, July corn is down 11.50 cents. The market remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.
July wheat closed essentially unchanged on volume of 135,024 contracts. Open interest declined by 2,122 contracts. As I write this on June 12 July wheat is down 16.00 cents. Stand aside.
July crude oil lost $1.40 on volume of 649,691 contracts. Open interest declined by a meager 448 contracts. The most startling aspect of trading on June 11 was that the trading range for the day was $5.53, which is the largest range day since crude oil topped out on May 1. However, volume was significantly less than on May 4 when the trading range was $5.18 and crude oil traded 884,050 contracts. There has been a decline in volume from what was considered normal only a few months ago. For example, volume started increasing on May 31, but prior to that volume was abysmal. Even when considering the higher than normal volume of the last two weeks, it is far below what would have been considered high volume three or four months ago. As I write this on June 12, July crude oil is up 49 cents. Stand aside.
July gasoline lost 2.86 cents on volume of 260,490 contracts. Open interest increased by 3,389 contracts. Interestingly, the bull spread in gasoline is priced near its highs. For example, the July-October bull spread widened by 1.01 cents and stands at 27.91 cents premium to July. The high for the spread is 28.02 cents made on June 5. The spread action indicates to me that gasoline is going to have a significant rally at some point. The market closed at $2.6566, which is in the value zone based upon the 104 week moving average of $2.66 The market remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.
July copper gained 5.80 cents on relatively heavy volume of 90,551 contracts. Open interest increased by 1,335 contracts. The market is oversold in relation to its 50, 150, 200 day moving averages, which converge between $3.60-$3.63. I would like to see the market rally to these averages before implementing bearish positions. Stand aside.
August gold closed $5.40 higher on volume of 119,359 contracts. Open interest declined by 2,370 contracts. On June 6, August gold generated a short-term buy signal, but has not generated an intermediate term buy signal. I have been bullish gold for quite some time and readers should review the Weekend Wrap of June 3 on gold, and the Weekend Wrap of June 10 on silver. As I write this on June 12, August gold is trading $16.30 higher. Readers should be consulting with their investment advisor or broker before embarking on a plan to acquire gold.
July silver closed 14.5 cents higher on fairly light volume of 43,921 contracts. Open interest increased by 3 contracts. In the June 10 Weekend Wrap, I discussed why I believe silver has bottomed and I suggest that readers review the post. The market remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal, but this could be in the process of reversing shortly. Stand aside.
The June Euro lost 90 points on extremely heavy volume of 430,087 contracts. Open interest increased by 10,192 contracts. The Euro had a huge range day of almost 2 cents and reached a new high for the move at $1.2670. As I have said before, there is no reason to be involved in the Euro. Stand aside.
S&P 500 E mini:
The September S&P 500 E mini closed down 21.75 points on extremely heavy volume of 4,288,775 contracts. Open interest increased by 58,296 contracts. The market had huge range of 42.25 points, which occurred due to the announcement of loans to Spain over the weekend. S&P 500 futures rallied to the high on Sunday evening and then proceeded to move lower over the next 20 hours. Although I think the market may rally from here, there is much danger of continued bad news from Europe. As a consequence, long put protection should be maintained.