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July soybeans closed 12 cents higher on extremely light volume of 185,513 contracts. Open interest declined on the advance by 1,682 contracts.Volume was the lightest since March 28, 2012 when 183,111 contracts were traded. The market made a fractional new high at $15.07, which was 1/4 cent higher than the high made on April 27. However, the market made a new closing high of $15.05 1/2. Since April 26, soybeans have advanced a total of 29 1/2 cents, and volume has been declining each day on the advance. Also, open interest in the July contract on April 30 increased a mere 61 contracts on volume of 98,009 contracts. Stand aside.
July corn closed 8 3/4 cents higher on volume of 255,013 contracts. Open interest declined by 14,458 contracts. Volume shrank by 185,720 contracts from the trading session on April 27. As a matter of fact, volume was the lightest since March 23 when corn traded 181,237 contracts. On April 30, open interest in the July contract declined by 4,211 contracts on volume of 134,365 contracts. Although the market has advanced by 26 3/4 cents during the past two trading sessions, open interest in the July contract has declined by a net 3,557 contracts. In essence, longs and shorts that have previously established positions are liquidating on the rally. The decline of open interest during the past seven days totals 125,403 contracts. Stand aside.
June Crude oil closed 10 cents lower on light volume of 412,374 contracts. Open interest increased by a whopping 16,264 contracts. Although the volume has been dismal, the cumulative open interest increase on the price advance is impressive. Since April 23, open interest has increased each day for a total of 53,794 contracts. On April 23, June crude oil closed at $103.11 and on April 30 closed at $104.87. This is not much of a price rise considering that open interest increased significantly. The large build in open interest relative to volume indicates that speculators on both sides are aggressively putting on positions and there is strong disagreement about the direction of crude. The low volume accompanying the large open interest build indicates a lack of participation by the speculative community.
June gasoline closed 1.99 cents lower on light volume of 125,564 contracts. Open interest declined for the 8th day in a row and now totals 67,449 contracts. From April 19 through April 30, gasoline has lost 4.20 cents while open interest has declined. This is positive price and open interest action. Although the decline of open interest has been significant, it has had a relatively small impact on price. Stand aside for now.
July copper closed nearly 1/2 cent higher on relatively light volume of 62,674 contracts. Open interest declined by 3,957 contracts. Although the market reached its highest point since April 4, volume shrank dramatically and was the lowest since April 5 when 58,668 contracts were traded. Since April 24 through April 30 open interest has declined by 10,600 contracts. During this period, from low to high, the market has risen approximately 23 cents. Copper is on an intermediate term buy signal based upon its hurdle over the key pivot point. However, the pattern of declines in open interest is terrible, despite reaching its highest point since April 4. Stand aside.
June gold closed 60 cents lower on volume of 130,203 contracts. Open interest declined by 716 contracts. One area to watch closely is the 50 day moving average, which is currently at $1679.55. The last time the market closed above the 50 day moving average was on March 12, 2012 when the market closed at $1702.00. If gold can close above the moving average, it may finally be in a position to start moving significantly higher. Currently, gold remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Do not short the market.
July silver closed 40 cents lower on light volume of 40,075 contracts. Open interest increased by 80 contracts. Silver is on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.
The June Euro closed 20 points lower on extremely light volume of 150,018 contracts. Open interest declined by 4,192 contracts. Stand aside.
The cash Dollar Index generated a short-term sell signal. This has bullish implications for the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian Dollar. Please review the April 29 Weekend Wrap for more information on the Dollar Index.
Australian Dollar: All speculators should be out of the Australian dollar. If I see any new speculative possibilities, I will start writing about the Australian Dollar again.
S&P 500 E mini:
The June S&P 500 E mini closed 5.00 points lower on very light volume of 1,324,877 contracts. Open interest declined by 17,975 contracts. Long put protection should be in place.