WTI crude oil:
December WTI crude oil lost 9 cents on volume of 1,467,358 contracts. Total open interest declined by 5,324 contracts, which relative to volume is dramatically below average. The December contract accounted for a loss of 48,314 of open interest. Yesterday, the December contract made a low of 42.20, which is the lowest print since 41.58 made on August 3. As this report is being compiled on November 15 the December contract is trading sharply higher, up $1.94 or +4.48% on healthy volume. The December contract remains on short and intermediate term sell signals. We recommend a stand aside posture.
The December dollar index gained a strong 1.070 points on heavy volume of 57,321 contracts. Total open interest increased by a sizable 1,108 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average, and a total open interest increase on yesterday’s strong advance is positive. Yesterday, the December contract made a high of 100.240, which takes the dollar index up to the levels last seen in November 2015. As this report is being compiled on November 15, the dollar index has made another new contract high of 100.265. If the dollar index continues to strengthen coupled with higher interest rates, enthusiasm could dampen for equities. We recommend a stand aside posture.
Silver: On November 14, December 2016 and March 2017 New York silver generated short term sell signals and remain on intermediate term sell signals.
10 Year Treasury Note:
The December 10 year treasury note lost 16-5 points on strong volume of 2,468,066 contracts. Total open interest increased by a sizable 53,976 contracts,, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average, but a total open interest increase on yesterday’s strong decline is bearish. As this report is being compiled on November 15, the 10 year note is trading 3 points lower on the day and has made a daily low of 126-105, which is above yesterday’s contract low of 125-305. The 10 year note has fallen substantially ever since the election on November 8 and this means higher interest rates for mortgages if current levels hold. Stand aside.
S&P 500 E-mini: The December S&P 500 E-mini will generate an intermediate term buy signal on November 15 provided the daily low remains above OIA’s key pivot point for November 15 of 2156.20. The December 2016 and March 2017 contracts generated short term buy signals on November 10.