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Soybeans:

July soybeans lost 11.25 cents on light volume of 141,990 contracts. Total open interest declined by 2113 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% less than average. The May contract accounted for loss of 3584. As this report is being compiled on May 4, July soybeans are trading 9.75 higher.

OIA wanted to point out that the July-August 2015 spread closed at 5.75 cents premium to July on Friday, which is the highest close for this spread since July 28, 2014. This may indicate that prices go higher in the short term. Although we had recommended the initiation of bearish positions on a rally, we are changing our minds about this due to the very positive spread action. At this juncture, we recommend a stand aside posture. July soybeans remain on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Soybean oil:

July soybean oil lost 7 points on very light volume of 62,203 contract. Total open interest declined by 293 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% below average.The May contract lost 1105 open interest, July -1672. As this report is being compile on May 4, July soybean oil is trading sharply higher, up 97 points, or +3.07% versus soybeans trading +1.24%.On April 16, July soybean oil generated a short-term buy signal, but as yet has not generated an intermediate term buy signal. We have cautioned about the involved in soybean oil because we were concerned about the action in soybeans. Although, we would not chase the market here, it looks like higher prices are ahead.

Corn:

July corn lost 3.25 cents on light volume of 229,786 contracts. Total open interest increased by 3,054 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% less than average. The May contract lost 3,410 of open interest, July -2,371, which makes the total open interest increased by more impressive (bearish).On Friday, July corn made a new low for the move of 3.60 3/4 and this has been taken out today with another new low of 3.60. July corn remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Live cattle:

June live cattle lost 52.5 points on volume of 46,981 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,248 contracts, which relative to volume is average. The April contract lost 1,104 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish). As this report is being compiled on May 4, June live cattle is trading 1.30 cents higher and has made a daily high of 1.50900, which is above Friday’s high, but below the high made on April 30 (1.51300). On April 13, June live cattle generated a short-term sell signal and for this to be reversed the low of the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point for May 4 of 1.50920 and above today’s high. The market looks tired.

Lean hogs:

June lean hogs lost 17.5 points on volume 32,155 contracts.total open interest declined by 729 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% below average. The May contract lost 46 of open interest, June -2321. As this report is being compiled on May 4, June lean hogs are trading 80 points higher and have made a daily high of 82.150, which takes out Friday’s high of 81.950. On April 24, the June and July contracts generated short term buy signals and intermediate term by signals on April 29.OIA sees higher hog prices ahead.

WTI crude oil:

June WTI lost 48 cents on light volume of 494,018 contracts. Total open interest declined by 15,890 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% above average meeting liquidation was heavier than normal on the decline. The June contract lost 20,283 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on May 4, June WTI is trading 37 cents lower and has not taken out Friday’s high of 59.90, which is the high for the move thus far. Stand aside.

Natural gas: On May 1, June natural gas generated a short-term buy signal, but remains on an intermediate term sell signal. Wait for a set back.

June natural gas advanced 2.5 cents on very light volume of 250,747 contracts. Total open interest declined by a massive 14,384 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 130% above average meaning liquidation was extremely heavy on the modest advance. The June contract lost 20,136 of open interest.Natural gas had open interest increases in the previous three days as prices advanced from the contract low of 2.481 made April 27.

The June contract is trading 12.17% above the contract low and as this report is being compiled on May 4, is trading 1.8 ┬ácents higher, but has not taken out Friday’s high of 2.800, which is the highest print since 2.821 made March 26.

Natural gas should have a pullback lasting 1-2 and possibly three days and this will be the opportunity to initiate bullish positions.The current COT report shows that managed money is massively short natural gas by the highest ratio in at least one year and this will provide plenty of fuel for a continued upside move after the market has corrected.

Gold: On May 1, June gold generated a short-term sell signal and remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

June gold lost $7.90 on light volume of 133,385 contracts. Total open interest increased by 446 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 85% below average, but an open interest increase on a price decline is bearish, and this continues the pattern that we’ve seen recently. The June contract lost 1,967 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increase more impressive (bearish).

As this report is being compiled on May 4, June gold is trading 14.70 higher and has made a high of 1192.10. Typically after the generation of a sell signal, markets will have a counter trend rally lasting from 1-3 days.We have no strong feeling about gold on the short side despite its poor performance.

Euro: On May 1, the June euro generated an intermediate term buy signal after generating a short-term buy signal on April 29.

The June euro lost 68 pips on volume of 196,298 contracts. Total open interest declined by 7,700 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 55% above average meaning that liquidation was substantial on the decline. As this report is being compiled on May 4, the June euro is trading 34 pips lower and has not taken out Friday’s high for the move of 1.1297.

The euro has advanced strongly over the past week, therefore corrective moves are to be expected. However, we do not think the rally is over yet. Conceivably, we could see a move up to the 1.15 area, especially because managed money remains heavily net short and this will provide additional fuel for a continued move higher.

Yen: If today’s high of .8337 holds, the June yen will generate a short and intermediate term sell signal.

The June yen lost 62 pips on relatively light volume of 113,377 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 9,713 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 240% above average meaning that large numbers of new aggressive short-sellers were entering the market and driving prices lower (.8315). As this report is being compiled on May 4, the June yen is trading near unchanged on the day.

Coffee: On May 1, July coffee generated a short-term sell signal, which reverses the short-term buy signal of April 7. July coffee remains on an intermediate term sell signal.

This will be our final report on coffee until we announce a signal change or see a trading opportunity.

July coffee lost 3.25 cents on volume of 27,812 contracts. Total open interest increased by massive 4,037 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 425% above average meaning that large numbers of aggressive short-sellers were entering the market and driving prices to a new low for the move (1.3250).As this report is being compiled on May 4, July coffee is trading 2.10 cents lower and has made another new low for the move of 1.3155. The market is headed for a test of the March 3 low.