For Bloomberg access:{OIAR<GO>}

Soybeans:

July soybeans advanced 3.75 cents on heavier than the normal volume of 311,131 contracts. Volume was the strongest since April 9 when soybeans lost 18.00 cents on volume of 335,819 contracts and total open interest increased by 13,403. On April 15, total open interest declined by 13,859 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% above average meaning that liquidation was very heavy on the advance. The May contract accounted for loss of 25,333 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 16, July soybeans are trading 5.75 lower on the day. July soybeans remain on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Soybean meal:

July soybean meal lost $2.30 on heavy volume of 131,253 contracts. Total open interest increased by 1,528 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% below average. The May contract accounted for loss of 6,354 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 16, July soybean meal is trading 1.70 lower on the day. July soybean meal remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal.

Soybean oil: July soybean oil will generate a short-term buy signal if the low of the day on April 16 is above OIA’s key pivot point for April 16 of 31.58.

July soybean oil advanced 53 points on extremely heavy volume of 190,169 contracts. Volume with the heaviest of 2015 and we checked back to 2014 and volume traded on April 15 was the highest in at least one year. Open interest action was positive as well with a gain of 11,010 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 130% above average meaning that aggressive new longs were entering the soybean oil market in very heavy numbers and driving prices higher (31.92). As this report is being compiled on April 16, July soybean oil is trading 14 points lower, but has made another new high for the move at 32.21.

Live cattle:

June live cattle advanced 1.25 cents on low volume of 34,723 contracts.Volume traded was the lowest since April 9 and was the third lowest volume day going back to February 18. This is not what you want to see if bullish live cattle. On April 15, total open interest increased substantially, up by 1,293 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 45% above average meaning that new longs were entering the market in large numbers and driving prices to a new high for the move (1.51975). The April contract lost 899 open interest, October 2015 -349.

As this report is being compiled on April 16, June live cattle is trading 40 points higher and has made a daily high of 1.52425, which is the highest print since 1.52375 made on April 7. The high for the move occurred on April 6 when June live cattle made a high of 1.54675.On April 13, June live cattle generated a short-term sell signal, and since then has had a counter trend rally on April 14 and 15.

The question remains whether the market can close higher for a third day, however, we think the move higher is on borrowed time.The only way that June live cattle can have a sustained advance from here is if it can reverse the short term sell signal. This can only be accomplished if the June contract makes a daily low above OIA’s key pivot point for April 16 of 1.51970. We don’t think this is going to happen, and we will be looking at today’s open interest stats for an indication the current rally is about to run out of steam. Stand aside.

WTI crude oil:

May WTI crude oil gained $3.10 on extremely heavy volume of 1,367,476 contracts.Volume traded on April 15 was the highest of 2015. On April 15, total open interest increased by a paltry 7,500, which relative to volume is approximately 75% below average. The May contract lost 33,420 of open interest and though there was sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to offset the decline in May, it appears that market participants were getting cold feet as prices approached the highest levels since December 29, 2014 (57.00).

This is perfectly understandable considering the constant chatter from the financial press and so-called experts who keep telling everyone about the glut of crude oil. On April 7, May and June WTI generated a short term buy signal and generated an intermediate term buy signal on April 14. We have no recommendation, except to say that clients should not short crude oil.

Brent crude oil: On April 15, June Brent crude oil generated a short and intermediate term buy signal.

June Brent crude oil advanced $3.51 on unimpressive volume of 861,808 contracts. Total open interest increased by 16,977 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. The May contract accounted for loss of 14,080 contracts. During the past two sessions, June Brent crude oil has advanced $4.28 while total open interest has increased by just 16,531 contracts. This is an abysmal performance.We have no recommendation except to say that clients should not short Brent crude oil.

Heating oil: On April 15, May and June heating oil generated a short and intermediate term buy signal.

May heating oil advanced 8.71 cents on volume of 156,378 contracts. Remarkably, volume declined substantially from April 14 when May heating oil gained 1.84 cents on volume of 200,402 contracts while total open interest increased by 3,624. In short, the strong move yesterday kept a substantial number of participants on the sidelines. Additionally, the open interest action was disappointing with a gain of only 317 contracts. The May contract lost 3,762 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 16, May heating oil is trading 2.21 cents higher.

Gasoline: On April 15, May and June gasoline generated an intermediate term buy signal, and will generate a short term buy signal on April 16.

May gasoline advanced 10.00 cents on volume of 211,398 contracts. Total open interest was a disappointing +1,517 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 60% below average. The May contract lost 5,587 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on April 16, May gasoline is trading 1.02 cents higher on the day.

Canadian dollar: The June Canadian dollar will generate a short and intermediate term buy signal on April 16.

The June Canadian dollar advanced a stunning 1.21 cents on heavy volume of 126,351 contracts.Volume was the strongest since March 12 when 132,359 contracts were traded and the June Canadian dollar closed at 78.55.On April 15, total open interest increased by 2,870 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% below average, but an open interest increase is bad news for the massive number of speculative shorts who hold these positions in the Canadian dollar. On April 14, the June Canadian dollar advanced 69 pips on volume of 60,812 contracts and total open interest increased by 584.

In short, during the past two days, the June Canadian dollar has gained 1.90 cents and total open interest has increased by 3,454. While this is not a large number, it does indicate that short sellers are refusing to liquidate despite the massive rally. As this report is being compiled on April 16, the June Canadian dollar is trading 98 pips higher and is trading at the highs of the day (82.22).

Coffee:

July coffee gained 70 ticks on volume of 48,525 contracts. Total open interest declined by 1,499 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 10% above average. The May contract lost 7,922 of open interest and there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to significantly reduce the total number. As this report is being compiled on April 16, July coffee is trading 2.75 cents higher on the day. July coffee remains on a short term buy signal, but an intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.