March corn closed 12 1/2 cents higher on volume of 352, 774. Open interest increased by 2589 contracts. As I’ve said in previous posts, the trend is ultimately down and the longs are going to be forced to liquidate at lower prices.
March soybeans closed higher by 13 1/2 cents on volume of 189, 853 contracts. Open interest declined by 4011 contracts. This market continues to act in a bearish fashion. On further rallies, look to implement put positions.
March sugar closed 61 points higher on volume of 134, 454 contracts. Open interest increased by a whopping 10, 175 contracts. As I’ve pointed out before, ahead is a period of seasonal weakness for sugar. Therefore, the market is likely to have some surprising setbacks, but the trend is higher. As mentioned before, stops should be placed at 22.82 in the March contract. Sugar can also be traded through the ETF ticker symbol as SSG.
March crude oil closed lower by $.22 on volume of 682, 925 contracts. Open interest declined by 16, 478 contracts. During the last three trading sessions, crude oil open interest has declined by 41, 296 contracts. Of note, on January 18 and 19, the dollar was very weak and should have acted to boost crude oil prices. Stand aside.
March copper closed higher by 4.80 cents on volume of 53, 064 contracts. Open interest increased by 968 contracts. Since recommending copper on January 11, copper has risen approximately $.28. The market is massively overbought. Stand aside and look for a lower entry point.
February gold declined by $5.40 on volume of 165, 952 contracts. Open interest increased by 2930 contracts. Although the market can certainly move higher, the 50 day moving average should act to blunt some of that move. The 50 day moving average has crossed below the 150 day moving average and within approximately 14 sessions the 50 day will be under the 200 day moving average. For the last three days, open interest along with price action has been positive. However, the market has to close above its 50 day moving average on rising open interest and volume for the rally to have legs. Stand aside
March silver declined by about 3 1/2 cents on volume of 35, 608 contracts. Open interest declined by 815 contracts. Stand aside.
The March Euro rose 97 points on volume of 285, 443 contracts. Open interest increased by 31 contracts. This is poor follow-through from the previous day when the euro rose 1.16 cents and open interest increased by 6153 contracts. This market is still subject to a potential short squeeze, and my opinion is that that speculators should stand aside.
S&P 500 E Mini:
The March S&P 500 E mini closed higher by 8.25 points on volume of 1, 839, 820 contracts. Open interest increased by 13, 784 contracts. The market is grinding slowly higher, but that should not be of comfort to the bulls. Put protection should be in place, and a further analysis of the S&P 500 will be included in the weekend wrap.
10 Year Treasury Notes:
March 10 year treasury notes closed lower by 18 points on very large volume of 1, 274, 367 contracts. Open interest decreased by 30, 519 contracts. Declining open interest with declining prices is positive when a market is in a bullish trend. However, the market is overbought, which poses potential hazards for those that are long. More analysis will be provided in the weekend wrap.