Corn closed lower by 10 1/2 cents on volume of 337, 868 contracts. Open interest increased by 3198 contracts. The troubling aspect of corn as mentioned in earlier posts, is that on declines we don’t see open interest declining to any degree. Longs that were established in the 8 to 9 days leading up to the crop report still have major losses on their positions. On rallies, long puts should be instituted in corn, or sell out of the money calls.
Soybeans closed unchanged on the day on volume of 187, 804 contracts. Open interest increased by 1985 contracts. Wait for a further rally in soybeans before implementing any put positions.
March crude oil closed $.12 lower on volume of 673, 244 contracts. Open interest declined by 12, 188 contracts for the second day in a row. The market looks like it’s in a topping pattern, but stand aside. The market that speculators should be focusing on is the gasoline market. I will perform an open interest analysis of the gasoline market in this weekend’s wrap.
March Copper closed 2.30 cents higher on volume of 54, 394 contracts. Open interest increased by 3332 contracts. The market is overbought and should only be bought on a sizable pullback. To participate in copper in a conservative manner, speculators should look at the copper ETN ticker symbol JJC. The market touched its October 28 high of 3.768 and this could be a set up for a pullback. Since recommending copper on January 11, copper has rallied $.23.
February gold closed $4.30 higher on volume of 165, 515 contracts. Open interest increased by 5552 contracts. During the last two days, open interest is up over 13,000 contracts on rising prices. Although this is a positive development gold has a number of price hurdles to overcome. The first hurdle is the 50 day moving average of $1676.83. There are other pivot points that the market has to penetrate before it is a candidate for a long position. Of note is the fact that the 50 day moving average is crossing under its 150 day moving average. With in the next 12 to 14 trading sessions, the 50 day moving average will cross under the 200 day moving average. This is bearish.
March silver closed higher by $.40 on volume of 41, 984 contracts open interest declined by 798 contracts.This market has been in a severe liquidation mode for quite some time. I will examine the liquidation phase of silver in greater detail in my weekend wrap.
The March Euro closed higher by 1.16 cents on volume of 354, 246 contracts. Open interest increased by 6153 contracts. I’ve cautioned speculators in numerous posts that this market could be subject to of violent short covering rally. Stand aside.
S&P 500 E Mini:
The March S&P 500 E mini closed higher by 13 points on volume of 2, 010, 787 contracts. Open interest increased by 38, 615 contracts. We are seeing increases in open interest along with prices, but I find the rally suspect. I will go into more detail in my weekend wrap.
10 Year Treasury Notes:
March 10 year treasury notes closed lower by 10 1/2 points on volume of 870, 017 contracts. Open interest declined by 9882 contracts. The market is overbought at this level and protective sell stops should be in place. In the weekend wrap, I will provide the key pivot points to watch for in this market. If you are not long at lower levels, stand aside.
March sugar closed lower by 14 points on light volume of 64, 758 contracts. Open interest increased by 1939 contracts. As I stated before, this market looks like it wants to go higher and I suggested that any longs should have a stop point at 2282 basis March sugar.