Price, volume and open interest analysis for October 5, 2015
For Bloomberg access:{OIAR<GO>}
For Bloomberg access:{OIAR<GO>}
The CME Group has announced that exchange data for May 13 will be delayed. As a result, the report for May 13 will be published later in the day because OIA uses only final stats for the reports. We have spoken to our contact at the exchange and she cannot provide us with an estimated time for release of the final stats.
Please call with any question.
Garry
415-440-1551
Soybeans:
May soybeans lost 21.75 cents on volume of 196,754 contracts. Volume increased approximately 61,000 contracts from March 2 when soybeans lost 10.75 while open interest increased 3,123 contracts. On March 13, open interest declined 4,277, which in relation to volume is approximately 15% below average. Export sales reported by the USDA showed that 657.7 thousand tons were sold in the recent reporting period. This is dramatically above USDA projections for the current crop year and average weekly exports year to date. Commitments total 1.304 billion against the USDA projected commitments of 1.345.
Clients who acquired long positions in futures and options when short and intermediate term buy signals were generated, should be out of the market as of March 13. We recommended that sell stops be placed at the $14.50 level. As this report is being compiled, May soybeans have made a new low for the move at $14.29. It appears that Chinese demand is waning for US exports and the window for increasing soybean exports is closing due to shipments from Brazil which should be increasing substantially in the coming months. Soybeans remain on a short and intermediate term buy signal. Stand aside.
The dollar index has made a new high for the move on March 13, and this negative factor is weighing on commodities.
Soybeans:
May soybeans lost 10.75 cents on volume of 135,773 contracts. Open interest increased 3,123 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 5% below average. As this report is being compiled, May soybeans are trading 23.50 cents lower and have broken through the March 8 low of $14.50 1/4. In prior reports, we recommended that longs place stops at the March 8 low of $14.50 1/4. On March 8, soybeans have made a new low on March 13 of 14.40 1/4. At 5:00 p.m. cdt when the evening session began, soybeans opened at $14.68, and immediately made a high of 14.68 3/4, which was the closing price for March 12. Soybeans were unable to surpass the closing price throughout the evening and into the day session, which reveals the essential weakness of soybeans. In yesterday's report, we commented on the inability of soybeans to rally much beyond the 14.84 area. Although soybeans remain on a short and intermediate term buy signal, we recommend that clients stand aside and wait for more clarification about the ultimate direction of the current move. Everyone should be out of their long positions in futures and in options.
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