Price, volume and open interest analysis for June 27, 2014

OIA will provide an analysis on the USDA’s report released on June 30.

June 30 is 1st notice day for all July grain contracts.

Soybeans:

August soybeans lost 3.75 and the November contract lost 16.25 cents on total volume of 200,650 contracts. Volume was the highest since June 17 when soybeans lost 23.50 cents on volume of 212,406 contracts and total open interest declined by 2,668 contracts. On June 27, total open interest declined by 9,344 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 75% above average meaning that liquidation was very heavy on the modest decline in old crop and a larger decline in new crop soybeans. The July contract accounted for loss of 15,052 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on June 30, after the release of the USDA report, August soybeans are trading 37.00 cents lower while the November contract – 39.75. The August contract has made a low of 13.14 1/4 and the November contract, 11.75 3/4. More than likely, August and November soybeans will generate an intermediate term sell signal tomorrow. We have been advising clients to stand aside in all grains until after the report, and the downtrend continues across the board. Stand aside.

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Price, volume and open interest analysis for June 26, 2014

On June 30, the USDA will release its quarterly grain stocks and acreage report. We recommend that all grain positions be liquidated prior to the report.

Soybeans:

August soybeans advanced 20.00 cents while the November contract gained 15.25 on total volume of 192,690 contracts. Total open interest declined by 3,546 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 25% below average. The July contract accounted for loss of 12,336 of open interest, and there were sufficient open interest increases in the forward months to partially offset the decline in the July contract. The August contract made a high of $13.82 3/4, which was the highest price since June 12 (13.89 3/4). As this report is being compiled on June 27, August soybeans are trading 2.25 cents lower after making a new high for the move at 13.92 1/4.

The November contract made a high yesterday of 12.46 1/4, which is its highest print since May 30 of 12.48 3/4. On June 27, the November contract made a high of 12.45, but has taken a tumble and is now trading 15.00 cents lower on the day. As we said in yesterday’s report, for the November contract to generate a short-term buy signal, the low of the day must be above OIA’s key pivot point of 12.36 7/8.On June 27, the November contract has made a low of 12.26 1/4.We strongly encourage clients to remain on the sidelines prior to the USDA report. Both August and November soybeans remain on short term sell signals and intermediate term buy signals.

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Price, volume and open interest analysis for June 24, 2014

On June 30, the USDA will release its grain stocks and acreage report. This is a major report, and we recommend that clients be on the sidelines until after the release of the report.

Soybeans:

August soybeans lost 7.75 and the new crop November contract lost 9.25 cents on total volume of 178,192 contracts. Total open interest increased by 7,748 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 60% above average meaning that aggressive new short sellers were entering the market and driving prices lower. The July contract accounted for loss of 3509 of open interest, which makes the total open interest increased more impressive (bearish). As this report is being compiled on June 25, August soybeans are trading 2.50 cents lower while the November contract is -2.25. The August and November contracts remain on short-term sell signals, but intermediate term buy signals. Stand aside. Read more →

Price, volume and open interest analysis for June 20, 2014

Soybeans:

July soybeans lost 5.00 cents and the November contract gained 4.25 on total volume of 162,063 contracts. Total open interest declined by 9,134, which relative to volume is approximately 130% above average meaning that liquidation was heavy. The July contract accounted for loss of 10,978 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on June 23, August soybeans are trading 2.25 cents lower and the November contract is trading down 2.50. The November contract made a high overnight at $12.43 1/2, which is its highest print since May 30 when November reached 12.48 3/4, and closed at 12.33 3/4. August and November soybeans are short-term sell signals, but both remain on intermediate term buy signals. Stand aside.

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Price, volume and open interest analysis for June 19, 2014

Soybeans:

July soybeans gained 11.75 and the November contract added 14.25 cents on light volume of 131,937 contracts. Volume was the lowest since May 30 when July soybeans lost 5.75 cents and total open interest increased by 1264 contracts on volume of 104,984. On June 19, total open interest declined by 2,533 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 20% below average. The July contract lost 11,055 of open interest. As this report is being compiled on June 20, July soybeans are trading 17.00 cents lower while the November contract is trading -6.75. Remarkably, the July contract has not generated an intermediate term sell signal, but remain on a short-term sell signal. In the report of June 18, we recommended that the long put position in the November contract be liquidated.We have no recommendation at this juncture other than to stand aside.

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