This week’s COT report covers the period of April 23-April 29.
We are directing your attention to a number of commodities that have extremely high long to short ratios with soybean meal and soybean oil at their highest for 2014. Since the cutoff date for the report is Tuesday, April 29, there have been changes, but the mindset of managed money, especially for agricultural commodities is quite bullish based upon our analysis of the COT report.We disagree with this and think the path of least resistance for many commodities is lower. The Greenhaven Continuous Commodity Index (GCC) topped on March 31 and through May 2 is down 5.14%. The Greenhaven Index is an equally weighted index of 17 commodities, therefore a particular group or individual commodity is unable to dominate the index.
For the week, July soybeans lost 23.50 cents, August -21.25, new crop November -17.25. The COT report revealed that managed money added 1,890 contracts to their long positions and liquidated 4,470 contracts of their short positions. Commercial interests liquidated 23,476 contracts of their long positions and also liquidated 7,957 contracts of their short positions. As of the latest report, managed money is long soybeans by ratio of 7.88:1, which is up significantly from the previous week of 6.63:1 and the ratio of 2 weeks ago of 7.42:1.The current ratio is the highest since the April 1 COT report when managed money was long by ratio of 7.90:1.