July soybeans lost 51.75 cents on surprisingly light volume of 189,404 contracts. Volume was only slightly above the 184,545 contracts traded on April 29 when July soybeans advanced 17.25 cents and total open interest declined by 2,323 contracts. Additionally, volume was below that of April 28 when July soybeans advanced 5.75 cents on volume of 211,923 contracts and total open interest declined by 14,579 contracts. On May 1, total open interest declined by a massive 10,635 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 120% above average meaning that liquidation was substantial on the very large decline. The May contract lost 3,732 of open interest and July -8364. It now appears inevitable that soybeans will generate a short-term sell signal and for this to occur, the high of the day in the July contract must be below $14.58 3/4. As this report is being compiled on May 2, July soybeans are trading 1.00 cent lower on the day. The low volume on May 1 indicates a lack of participation and we expect volume to rise as prices continue to decline. Stand aside.
The USDA reported there were net cancellations of 16.4 thousand metric tons, which brings total commitments to 1.638.5 billion bushels versus the USDA projection for the season of 1.580 billion bushels. In short, the USDA is projecting cancellations of at least 58.5 million bushels.