On October 31, the dollar is trading sharply higher on a fairly sharp setback in the euro. This is hammering precious metals, grains and the petroleum complex.
November soybeans advanced 8.50 cents while January gained 5.75 on total volume of 204,925 contracts. Total open interest declined by 12,736 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 140% above average. The November contract accounted for loss of 20,936 of open interest and October 31 is 1st notice day, which means that speculators are required to liquidate positions. The USDA released the total export sales for the weeks of October 10, 17 and 24 and in this time frame, exports totaled 4742.01 thousand tons and as of October 24, total commitments amount to 808.3 million bushels versus USDA projections for the entire season of 1.225 billion bushels. The current export pace is the best since the 2007-2008 season. Despite this, soybeans look tired at current levels, and we expect further downward pressure on prices. The crucial area for January soybeans is $12.60 and a break below this would generate an intermediate term sell signal. Soybeans are already on a short-term sell signal. Additionally, we are seeing uncharacteristic weakness in soybean meal, which will further pressure soybeans. Stand aside.