September soybeans advanced 23.75 cents while the November contract increased 13.50 on total volume of 217,601 contracts. Total open interest increased by a massive 14,424 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 160% above average meaning that new longs were aggressively entering the market and pushing prices higher. Open interest increased in the September 2013 through November 2014 contracts. This is the second time during the past 3 trading sessions beginning on August 19 that prices have moved significantly higher and open interest increases have been massive. This aggressive new buying is confirming the uptrend.
The USDA released its export sales for the most recent week and it showed 20,900 tons sold for the 2012-2013 season and 925,900 tons sold for the 2013- 2014 season. As this report is being compiled on August 22, September beans are trading 3.50 cents higher while the November contract is trading 3.00 lower. The September contract has made a new high at $13.42 while the November contract has not exceeded the high of 13.19 made on August 21. Since generating a short and intermediate term buy signal in the November contract on August 19, and a short-term buy signal in the September contract, the market has only had one setback and this occurred on August 20 when the November and September contracts lost 12.75 cents. From a risk point of view, we are hesitant to recommend bullish positions at current levels because we think a setback is inevitable. It is likely that the September contract will generate an intermediate term buy signal on August 22.