On Monday, August 12, the USDA will release its crop production and supply demand report.
September soybeans gained 5.25 cents on volume of 128,922 contracts. Open interest increased by 933 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 60% less than average. The August contract lost 1,000 of open interest. The USDA reported that 2.92 million bushels have been sold during the most recent week for 2012-2013. Commitments total 1365.7 mb versus the USDA projection of 1330 mb. As this report is being compiled on August 8, September soybeans are trading 33.50 cents higher. For the past couple of reports, we have been warning about a potential short-term rally. Since the tabulation of last week's COT report, it is highly likely that managed money has increased their short positions, which will add fuel to any rally. Do not enter any new positions prior to the report.