June 19 report
As this report is being compiled on June 20, all markets are trading sharply lower. We have been cautioning our clients to stand aside in the markets because of our concern about the impact of an equity market meltdown. On June 17, OIA announced that July platinum generated a short-term sell signal. Since then, July platinum has fallen from $1434.80 (June 17 closing price) to 1357.30, which is the low price on June 20 as of this writing. On June 10, OIA announced that July copper had generated a short-term sell signal. Since then, July copper has declined from its closing price of $3.2410 on June 10 to a low of $3.0405 on June 20.
July soybeans gained 12.50 cents on volume of 192,743 contracts. Volume was the highest since June 13 when 217,014 contracts were traded and July soybeans lost 30.50 cents while open interest increased 3,228 contracts. On June 19, total open interest increased by 2,931 contracts, which relative to volume is approximately 40% less than average. Normally, this increase would be disappointing, however when taking into account the July contract lost 11,618 of open interest, the total increase is better than it appears.
As would be expected in the case of sharply lower markets across the board, July soybeans are trading 15.50 lower and the August contract is trading 19.75 lower. It is positive to see the spread between July and August widen on the decline. As we have indicated in previous reports, the penetration of $14.80 by the July contract would signal the end/temporary end of the recent bull move. The USDA released its export sales figures for the most recent reporting week and it showed that 52.61 thousand tons were sold, which was the highest in 5 weeks. Year to date for the season, which ends on August 31, show total commitments of 1348.8 million bushels versus USDA projected exports of 1330 mb. Thus far on June 20, the low for the day has been $15.05 1/2, which is one half cent above the low made on June 19 of 15.05 1/4. If this level is unable to hold, a move to 14.90 would be likely. Soybeans remain on a short and intermediate term buy signal.