Soybeans:
January soybeans gained 1.75 cents on volume of 164,215 contracts. Open interest increased by 1,400 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 60% less than average. The January contract lost 4,683 contracts of open interest. The spread action was negative with March gaining 6 cents and May advancing 8 cents. As this report is being compiled on November 30, January soybeans are trading 16.50 lower. Stand aside.
Soybeans:
January soybeans lost 3 cents on light volume of 143,657 contracts. Open interest declined by 1,746 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 45% less than average. There was liquidation the January contract totaling 4,950 contracts. Export sales as reported by the USDA on November 29 were disappointing at 319,100 tons for the 2012-2013 season. As of the report, export commitments total slightly over 1 billion bushels versus the USDA projections for 2012 2013 of 1.345 billion bushels. On November 28, there was an announcement of a sale to China of 290,000 tons, which is not included in this week’s export sales. The market continues to look tired at the mid-$14 level. Stand aside.
Soybeans:
January soybeans gained 24.50 cents on light volume of 149,789 contracts. Volume was the highest since November 16 when 170,094 contracts were traded and January beans lost 18.75 cents, while open interest declined by 3,154. Open interest declined by 3,327 contracts, which in relation to volume is average. The January contract lost 6,340 of open interest. January soybeans made a new high for the move at 14.51, which is a fractionally higher than the high of $14.48 3/4 made on November 12. Soybeans look tired at current levels, and we believe a retest of the lower end of the trading range is likely. Stand aside.
Soybeans:
January soybeans gained 6 cents on light volume of 124,786 contracts. Open interest increased by a minuscule 387 contracts, but that was fairly constructive since the January contract was responsible for the liquidation of 5,512 contracts. In other words, there was sufficient buying in the forward months to offset the decline of open interest in the January contract.
Soybeans:
January soybeans gained 10.50 cents on light holiday volume of 53,853 contracts. Total open interest declined by 146 contracts, and the January contract lost 2,453 of open interest. There is little new to report in the soybean complex. Stand aside.
The Weekend Wrap will be truncated due to the CFTC releasing the COT report on Monday.
Soybeans:
For the week, January soybeans gained 35.50 cents, March + 35.00, May +31.25.
The recent USDA report showed that approximately 994 million bushels have already been committed versus the USDA export projection of 1.345 billion bushels. This means that only 26% of the current crop remains to be sold until the end of the season on August 31, 2013. Exports only need to average 10 million bushels per week in order to meet the USDA projections for the current season. The big unknown is the size of the Brazilian and Argentine crops. If there are no weather problems, the Brazilian crop will exceed the U.S. crop this year. The key driver for soybean prices is going to be the critical growing period for Brazil and Argentina, which is from December 15 through mid-February. If weather problems begin to surface, we would expect to soybeans to move sharply higher. Stand aside.
On November 23, the dollar index is sharply lower caused primarily by the sharp jump in the euro. This is creating a risk on environment, and most commodities are trading on the plus side.
Soybeans:
January soybeans lost 4.50 cents on light holiday volume of 109,591 contracts. Total open interest increased by 2,781 contracts, which in relation to volume is average. The January contract saw liquidation of 85 contracts and January soybeans made a high of $14.24, which is the highest price since November 15 when they reached 14.27 3/4. On November 23, the USDA released its export sales numbers for soybeans and for the2012-2013 season, sales were 543,600 tons, which is approximately twice weekly sales required to reach the USDA export target. As this report is being compiled on November 23, January soybeans reached a high of 14.27, and has pulled back to trade 12.50 cents higher on the day. The rally looks extremely weak, and we expect a retest of the November 16 low of 13.72 1/4. Stand aside.
The US holiday of Thanksgiving will be on November 22, and all U.S. exchanges will be closed.
Soybeans:
January soybeans advanced 18 cents on light volume of 142,037 contracts. Open interest increased by a hefty 5,059 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 45% above average, meaning that participation was light, but commitments were heavy. This is the first time since November 1 that prices advanced and open interest increased. On November 19, soybeans advanced by 14 cents and open interest declined by 3,266 contracts. Open interest increased by 1,755 contracts in the May 2013 through-March 2014 contracts. This indicates there was commercial buying activity in the back months. Stand aside.
Soybeans:
January soybeans advanced 14 cents on light holiday volume of 113,341 contracts. Volume declined approximately 57,000 contracts from November 16 when January soybeans lost 18.75 and open interest declined by 3,154 contracts. On November 19, open interest declined by 3,266 contracts, which in relation to volume is slightly above average. The advance on low volume, combined with a slightly above average decrease in open interest is bearish market action. Although soybeans rallied on November 19 and the rally continues on November 20, the real test of this market is going to be when the equity markets resume their slide lower. The weather in South America has been extremely favorable, which is changing the perception of the global soybean balance sheet. If there were to be persistent weather problems in Brazil and Argentina, the market could explode to the upside. As it is, we believe the market will be searching for a bottom during the next 3 weeks.
On November 19, all commodities are trading higher on a half percent decline in the dollar index and are trading in a highly correlated fashion. Additionally, due to the Thanksgiving day holiday, trading for the week will be on the slow side.
Soybeans:
January soybeans lost 18.75 cents on volume of 170,094 contracts. Open interest declined by 3,054 contracts, which in relation to volume is approximately 15% below average. The January contract was responsible for losing 4,876 contracts of open interest. Soybeans made a new low for the move at $13.72 1/4, which is the lowest price since June 20 when soybeans made a low of 13.70 1/4. As this report is being compiled on November 19, soybeans are trading 11.25 cents higher and has made a high of 14.02 3/4. The market has more work to do at the lower end of its trading range, and will need more time to repair itself. If export sales continue at a rapid pace, we believe soybeans will turn around, but as mentioned in the Weekend Wrap of November 18, we must look at the soybean market based upon the price parameters in the Weekend Wrap and the mid-December timeframe. Stand aside.
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