E-mail comments and questions to: firstname.lastname@example.org
July soybeans lost 22.25 cents on fairly light volume of 186,266 contracts. Total open interest declined by 534 contracts and open interest in the July contract declined by 5,663 contracts on volume of 83,581. It was positive to see open interest decline when price declined and that volume was the lightest since June 5 when 169,801 contracts were traded. Compared to the average daily volume from May 2012 of 207,099 contracts and the year to date average daily volume of 209,261, volume was light when considering the magnitude of the decline. Soybeans have declined by a total of 49 cents during the past two days, and as I write this on June 15, July soybeans are down 6.75 cents. The July-November bull spread narrowed by 11.25 cents. I suspect that much of the liquidation is occurring due to the potential fallout of the Greek elections this weekend. The market remains on a short-term sell signal and an intermediate term buy signal. Stand aside.
July soybean meal lost $5.50 on relatively heavy volume of 80,287 contracts. Total open interest increased by 4,172 contracts and open interest in the July contract declined by 1,386 contracts on volume of 44,380. The average daily volume for May 2012 was 67,329 and the average daily volume on a year-to-date basis is 72,456 contracts. The market remains on a short-term and intermediate term buy signal and readers should be consulting with their investment advisor or broker regarding timing and entry levels for long positions.
July corn closed 9.00 cents higher on volume of 327,594 contracts. Total open interest declined by 11,188 contracts and open interest in the July contract declined by 19,770 on volume of 144,137 contracts. Open interest has declined for 6 days days in a row bringing the total open interest decline to 38,692 contracts. The market is on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.
July wheat gained 7.50 cents on very light volume of 106,474 contracts. Open interest increased by 5,141 contracts, which in relation to volume is a massive increase in open interest. Unfortunately, the volume on the advance was the lowest since May 15 2012 when 92,202 contracts were traded. The massive increase in open interest reflects very determined longs and shorts, but the low volume shows a lack of interest on the part of market participants. Harvest pressures continue to weigh on wheat prices and the commodity continues to be on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.
July crude oil gained $1.29 on 580,242 contracts. Volume was the lightest since June 5 when 478,692 contracts were traded. Open interest increased by 8,020 contracts, which in relation to volume was below average. When low volume is combined with the relatively low increase in open interest, a lackluster market is in evidence. Undoubtedly, much of the problem with crude oil is the slowing global economy and negative news from Europe. The market remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.
July gasoline gained 2.10 cents on very light volume of 92,905 contracts. I searched my records back to May 1 and couldn't find a day when gasoline had lower volume. Open interest increased by 1,131 contracts, which in relation to volume was a smaller increase than in crude oil. Gasoline remains on a short and intermediate term sell signal. Stand aside.
July copper gained 1.50 cents on volume of 67,591 contracts. Open interest declined on the advance by 4,953 contracts. Before implementing bearish positions, I would like to see the market rally up to the convergence of the 50, 150, and 200 day moving averages, which is between $3.58-$3.63. Stand aside.
August gold closed 20 cents higher on volume of 165,368 contracts. Open interest increased by 1,904, which in relation to volume was significantly below average. Additionally, volume on June 14 was significantly less than the average daily volume for May of 223,349 contracts and the volume of 192,974 contracts on a year-to-date basis. However, it was above the average daily volume in April 2012 of 134,991 contracts. Since making its high at $1642.40 on June 6, total open interest has increased by only 3,352 contracts. This is a dismal showing, and it indicates that market participants are standing aside. This is actually a very positive sign because it indicates that hedge funds have not joined the parade yet. When they do, prices will move higher very quickly. The market generated a short-term buy signal on June 6 and remains on an intermediate term sell signal. Readers should be consulting with their investment advisor or broker before embarking upon a plan to acquire gold for the longer-term.
July silver declined by 53.4 cents on volume of 50,536 contracts. Open interest declined by 684 contracts. Stand aside.
The September Euro gained 12 points on heavy volume of 462,924 contracts. Open interest increased by 6,439 contracts. Since June 8, open interest has increased every day through June 14, and the total increase over five sessions is 60,475 contracts. During this time, the Euro is essentially unchanged. This indicates that there is going to be major fireworks ahead. As I write this on June 15, the September Euro is 41 points higher. It has become increasingly clear that the Euro is not responding on the downside to the possibility of a Greek default. The massive increase in open interest indicates that both longs and shorts feel very strongly about their positions and only one is going to be right. Do not enter long or short positions in the Euro.
S&P 500 E mini:
The September S&P 500 E mini gained 17.50 points on heavy volume of 3,294,063 contracts. Open interest increased by 10,262 contracts, which in relation to volume is abysmal open interest action. The interesting aspect of trading in the S&P 500 E mini this week is that the Spanish 10 year bond has rocketed to major highs, and yet from Monday, June 11 through June 14 the S&P 500 E mini is up 3.50 points. It seems counterintuitive, but the market doesn't appear to be concerned about the potential negative events out of Europe. If it were, we would see a sharply lower market. As I write this on June 15, the S&P 500 E mini is 4.00 points higher, which again confirms the apparent lack of worry regarding a possible major negative event over the weekend. Additionally, the move higher in the Euro is confirming this lack of concern. Although I have been recommending long put protection, if there is a favorable surprise over the weekend with respect to the European situation and Greece in particular, there could be an explosive upside rally. For those with long put protection, please consult your investment advisor or broker about maintaining or liquidating the put protection.